Collaboration for non-zero sum games
From my point of view, this year's FA Cup Final passed by with the least impact of any final. This is no reflection on the teams who participated: in the past my day has been dominated by the game between two teams whom I neither supported nor particularly liked. I don't think that it is directly related to my age; I still relish a good football match or any sporting occasion, come to that.
Responsibilities do dictate that I can no longer justify sitting the whole day in front of the TV, unless, of course, it was my own team. It could be that the FA Cup, which in the past was the main single match spectacle of the season, now has a lot more competition from European trophies and domestic play-offs. However, I think the real reason is that, because of other factors, if I had sat down to watch it I would have been watching it on my own. And both the build up and the match lack something if there is no-one there to share it with you.
The Cup Final, of course, is a zero sum game. There is always a winner and consequently also a loser. The win and the loss cancel each other out to give a zero outcome. As much as we like zero sum games for entertainment, when it comes to other aspects of life we prefer non-zero sum games. That is where both participants come out with a win even if one party has a bigger win than the other. I recently read a book which put forward a convincing argument to show that the growth of civilisation has followed a move towards more win/win relationships. When the leaders of a civilisation get greedy and the game moves to a zero sum game, ie the leaders win more and more and the rest of society loses, then the civilisation inevitably heads for a fall.
The classic Game Theory exercise is 'The prisoner’s dilemma'. I'll leave you to look it up if you are interested. In this exercise the best outcome is a win/win outcome, which can be achieved if both prisoners trust each other and keep quiet. If the trust isn't there and both prisoners confess, then both prisoners lose. Which is still a non-zero sum game but not a beneficial one! In this exercise, the prisoners are kept in isolation and are not able to communicate. In real non-zero sum situations the win/win outcome requires trust, and trust is built on good communication.
After I had read the book, I thought that maybe this can explain what has happened to NDT over the last few decades. The win/win relationship between client and vendor became skewed in favour of the client. This had a consequential effect on the non-zero sum relationship between vendor and operator and the only way the operator could win was by working long hours. If this situation had been allowed to continue, the result would have been a zero sum game and the NDT profession would have collapsed like those earlier civilisations. Luckily, this didn't happen and through improved communication and trust the decline has been halted and, in some areas, reversed. However, we are not out of the woods. The win/win relationships are not yet sufficient to attract enough new and young blood into the profession. Without young recruits, NDT will really be a dying profession.
But the outlook for NDT activity looks healthy. If new nuclear build goes ahead then the demand for NDT will increase. Are we prepared for this demand? Will we be able to respond? Ideally, we would have already taken steps to position our industry to maximise the potential opportunities. But it is not too late to start.
Our aim should be to obtain the best non-zero sum game we can for NDT. To do this will require communication and trust. Not just between client and vendor, but also between the NDT industry and other industries, between different NDT companies, between NDT companies and operators and between operator and operator. Last month I wrote that NDT is a craft. Craftsmen pass on their skills to apprentices through collaboration and co-operation. This is another non-zero sum game.
Just like watching the Cup Final, the benefits can be increased through sharing.
Please note that the views expressed in this column are the author's own personal ramblings for the purpose of encouraging discussion within the NDT Newspaper. They do not represent the views of the IVC, Serco Assurance or the HSE who funded the PANI projects.
Letters can be mailed to The Editor, NDT News, Newton Building, St George's Avenue, Northampton NN2 6JB. Fax: 01604 89 3861; E-mail: ndtnews@bindt.org or e-mail Bernard McGrath direct at Bernard.McGrath@sercoassurance.com
Responsibilities do dictate that I can no longer justify sitting the whole day in front of the TV, unless, of course, it was my own team. It could be that the FA Cup, which in the past was the main single match spectacle of the season, now has a lot more competition from European trophies and domestic play-offs. However, I think the real reason is that, because of other factors, if I had sat down to watch it I would have been watching it on my own. And both the build up and the match lack something if there is no-one there to share it with you.
The Cup Final, of course, is a zero sum game. There is always a winner and consequently also a loser. The win and the loss cancel each other out to give a zero outcome. As much as we like zero sum games for entertainment, when it comes to other aspects of life we prefer non-zero sum games. That is where both participants come out with a win even if one party has a bigger win than the other. I recently read a book which put forward a convincing argument to show that the growth of civilisation has followed a move towards more win/win relationships. When the leaders of a civilisation get greedy and the game moves to a zero sum game, ie the leaders win more and more and the rest of society loses, then the civilisation inevitably heads for a fall.
The classic Game Theory exercise is 'The prisoner’s dilemma'. I'll leave you to look it up if you are interested. In this exercise the best outcome is a win/win outcome, which can be achieved if both prisoners trust each other and keep quiet. If the trust isn't there and both prisoners confess, then both prisoners lose. Which is still a non-zero sum game but not a beneficial one! In this exercise, the prisoners are kept in isolation and are not able to communicate. In real non-zero sum situations the win/win outcome requires trust, and trust is built on good communication.
After I had read the book, I thought that maybe this can explain what has happened to NDT over the last few decades. The win/win relationship between client and vendor became skewed in favour of the client. This had a consequential effect on the non-zero sum relationship between vendor and operator and the only way the operator could win was by working long hours. If this situation had been allowed to continue, the result would have been a zero sum game and the NDT profession would have collapsed like those earlier civilisations. Luckily, this didn't happen and through improved communication and trust the decline has been halted and, in some areas, reversed. However, we are not out of the woods. The win/win relationships are not yet sufficient to attract enough new and young blood into the profession. Without young recruits, NDT will really be a dying profession.
But the outlook for NDT activity looks healthy. If new nuclear build goes ahead then the demand for NDT will increase. Are we prepared for this demand? Will we be able to respond? Ideally, we would have already taken steps to position our industry to maximise the potential opportunities. But it is not too late to start.
Our aim should be to obtain the best non-zero sum game we can for NDT. To do this will require communication and trust. Not just between client and vendor, but also between the NDT industry and other industries, between different NDT companies, between NDT companies and operators and between operator and operator. Last month I wrote that NDT is a craft. Craftsmen pass on their skills to apprentices through collaboration and co-operation. This is another non-zero sum game.
Just like watching the Cup Final, the benefits can be increased through sharing.
Please note that the views expressed in this column are the author's own personal ramblings for the purpose of encouraging discussion within the NDT Newspaper. They do not represent the views of the IVC, Serco Assurance or the HSE who funded the PANI projects.
Letters can be mailed to The Editor, NDT News, Newton Building, St George's Avenue, Northampton NN2 6JB. Fax: 01604 89 3861; E-mail: ndtnews@bindt.org or e-mail Bernard McGrath direct at Bernard.McGrath@sercoassurance.com
