[9A2] Gear prognostics: a predictive algorithm for lifetime estimation of operating gearboxes

L Bergamini, A Zippo, F Pellicano, G Iarriccio and M Molaie
Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Italy 

For the realisation of optimised, effective gearboxes, both the set of design rules and the study of operation conditions, interconnected to each other, have to be taken into account. Condition monitoring is an essential tool when the study of gearbox operation is tackled and many techniques have been developed to detect the onset and development of wear. However, these techniques fall short when prediction of gearbox conditions is concerned, as in the case of tracking the useful lifetime during operation. Within this framework, a prognostic software is developed and presented. This software is able to estimate the useful lifetime of a gearbox on the base of design features (safety factors and parameters), standards and codes (ISO) and realistic/measured load spectra, representative of the operation condition of the gearbox. This tool opens up the possibility of combining condition monitoring and prediction for a wider comprehensive study of gearbox operation. Moreover, it potentially allows the detection of machinery misuse and to plan accurate usage-dependent maintenance in industrial environment.